Nuclear Delusion and Public Jubilation!

Nuclear Delusion and Public Jubilation!

Ali Asghar Kazemi
25 February 2008
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The tale of nuclear venture in Iran has become more like a funny satirical story than a serious national strategy and foreign policy issue. Upon the publication of the long awaited IAEA report* on Iran’s controversial nuclear activities, the hard-line government ushered a widespread propaganda campaign claiming over again another national victory. How far this claim is appropriate; what is behind this public jubilation, where the whole venture is heading to?

With the most optimistic and liberal interpretation of the report of the Director General of the IAEA issued on February 22, 2008, it contains nothing to justify such a public euphoria. On the contrary, the concluding parts of the report explicitly refer to a number of new activities which might cause the crisis to escalate even more in the future where it says:

“Contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities, having continued the operation of PFEP and FEP. In addition, Iran started the development of new generation centrifuges. Iran has also continued construction of the IR-40 reactor and operation of the Heavy Water Production Plant. “


This means that Iran not only continues to defy the UN Security Council Resolutions but has also embarked to further aggravate the situation by launching new enrichment facilities during the cooling period of supposed confidence building. Similarly, the report does not hesitate to speak about existence of eventual undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, which means serious allegations and suspicions about the true nature of the program and the possibility of concealment and deception. Since, the Agency clearly states that “in the light of the many years of undeclared activities in Iran and the confidence deficit created as a result,” it has not been able to provide ”credible assurance” that Iran’s nuclear project is peaceful.

Further more, in the view of the IAEA; “the one major remaining issue relevant to the nature of Iran’s nuclear program is the alleged studies on the green salt project, high explosives testing and the missile re-entry vehicle. This is a matter of serious concern and critical to an assessment of a possible military dimension to Iran’s nuclear program.“

Obviously, these statements can not be taken as friendly compliments by the IAEA which could give reason for claim of “historic victory of Iran in its greatest confrontation with the oppressive powers since the Islamic revolution". Indeed, IAEA last statement in the report alone can provides enough grounds for the Security Council to take a stubborn position in the upcoming third resolution on sanctions against Iran.

Curiously, while the Islamic government constantly maintains its peaceful and non-aggressive intention of nuclear project, it does not hesitate to aggravate the situation by threatening the “long tail of the United States” (Israel) and to showing signs of strength through dubious activities such as long-range missile testing amid the confidence building period.

Assuming that hard-liners in Tehran are not foolish people and are quite aware about the power of world public opinion, mass media and harsh impact of UN sanctions to Iran’s overall national interests , what are really the in the back of minds in their nuclear jubilation and continuous defiance? Here are some loud thoughts about their possible objectives:

• To overshadow the negative impact of the serious failure in the fulfillment of their economic promises to people in the coming parliamentary elections;
• To pave the way to comply with the IAEA request “ to implement the Additional Protocol… as an important confidence building measure” with the hope that the nuclear file be returned from the Security Council to the IAEA;
• By the same token, to give eventual concession to the five plus one states in the Security Council in the midst of public jubilation, in order to avoid the worst to happen;
• To continue to claim victory and show that the nuclear project is the most important achievement of the hard-liners , while following the same course of action as the previous progressive government with much more costs;
• To disarm their political opponents in the upcoming parliamentary elections campaign with a long-run objective of succeeding in the future presidential elections.

Yet, even with the fulfillment of some of the above objectives in the short-run, Iran’s continuing disregard of UN resolutions will have serious consequences on the future trends of the case. Without trying to be pessimist on the point, it is almost certain that:
• Firstly, a third resolution in the UN Security Council against Iran will be adopted by consensus (meaning that it will be backed by stronger enforcement measures);
• Secondly, Iran will be further squeezed in order to go along with the Security Council demands in its enrichment process; and finally
• Thirdly, the hard-line government in Tehran will be forced to adopt a more rational and flexible attitude fearing a complete fiasco. This could lead to widespread public discontent and loss of confidence and credibility.

Whatever might be derived from the above propositions, the truth of the matter is that the incumbent government in Iran is in no way ready to accept the responsibility of its dire mistakes and failures in domestic and foreign affairs. This has already been proven in various occasions and many areas of policy- making. It does not seem that hard-liners will be in a position to candidly confess to their blunders and misjudgments.

No matter what might be deducted from the recent IAEA report, based on the current state of the affaire, it would be hard to conceive that the West and the United States in particular will give a chance to hardliners in Iran to go nuclear. Unless the feuding parties opt for wisdom and moderation, mutual persistence on inflexible position is susceptible to lead to an inevitable clash. In such circumstances, despite all impeding international constraints, the outcome would be disastrous. Quite naturally, the weaker party is much more vulnerable and can not count on the protection of international law, since the law is always on the stronger side.


Iranians are caught in a critical period of history when hope and peril are running side by side to determine their fate. They are the ones who solely should decide for themselves the rational course of their future. They should make a decision in the next elections between wisdom and moderation on the one hand or eccentric and reckless politics on the other. /

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* All references and quotations in the text are to the Report by the Director General of the IAEA on: The Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006) and 1747 (2007) in the Islamic Republic of Iran. GOV/2008/4. Date: 22 February 2008. http://payvand.com/news/08/feb/IAEA_Iran_Report_22Feb2008.pdf

Iran's Revolution and Military in Politics

Iran’s Revolution and Military in Politics

Ali Asghar Kazemi

February 2008

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Almost 30 years after the fall of the monarchy, the Islamic regime is still fomenting revolutionary fervor and slogans in Iran. Revolutions by nature carry destructive forces which can not be easily routed to construction and development. Those who advocate the Shiite belief of perpetual revolution look forward to the time when the savior of all mankind will reappear and take the lead of humanity to the path of salvation. Meanwhile the revolutionary regime will have to tackle with various mundane problems of a state, while paving the way for the advent of the promised day.

We are not in a position here to pass judgment on the wisdom and suitability of such a doctrine to run the complicated affaires of a modern state. We want just to examine the obstacles before a revolutionary regime to fulfill its earthly pledges to its people and the context in which some military elites may be tempted to enter into the political process.

Among all political activities in Iran after the revolution, presidential and parliamentary elections have been always surrounded by rumors, mysteries and controversies. One such controversy relates to the phenomenon of military involvement in politics. How much this contention is accurate, who are these military men, and what are their objectives?

At the outset let’s clarify the terms military in the present state of affaire in Iran. By military we usually refer to the conventional definition of regular armed forces whose cadre is recruited and educated through a well-established and rigorous disciplinary and hierarchical system. The conventional military man in Iran is historically under strict military regulations which prohibit any involvement in politics while in active duty.

However, this is not true for the volunteered army “Bassiji” and “revolutionary guards” (Pasdaran) composed of devoted men who originally have fought in a patriotic war against Iraq without much background and education in the field. These were essentially young people who dropped from high schools and colleges who chose to offer their priceless lives in the defense of the homeland alongside with the regular army. Many of them were killed or injured and those who returned back from the fronts were reorganized as revolutionary guards “Pasdaran” and incorporated in the armed forces.

After the war they have been given various civilian projects like constructions of dams, roads, irrigation canals, and other economic activities in order to keep them busy and happy. At the same time, they have been offered special quota in higher educations and universities to continue their studies. Many of them are now graduated in various fields and carry the titles of doctors, engineers, generals etc. To be sure, by “military in politics” we refer to these people.

There is no doubt that there are many devoted, clever and bold men among the revolutionary guards’ corps who fought the 8 years Iraq-Iran war with loyalty and patriotic zeal. They have been occupying many important billets in high civilian and military positions. They have shown their aptitude to learn and acquire experience in some jobs and continue to work in various posts such as members of parliament, governors, mayors, city councilors etc.

Except few countries where historically military intervention in political affaires is accepted as final solution to crises and emergencies, armed forces are forbidden to get involved in politics. Turkey, Pakistan and a handful of Latin American states are among those exceptions. But nobody can imagine such thing to happen in democratic Western states. Constitutional provisions usually do not permit military people, who possess the real instruments of power and forces, to take side with any particular party in political strata.

There is no specific mention with respect to military involvement in political affairs in the Islamic constitution. However, while the regular army is “entrusted with the task of protecting the independence, territorial integrity and the Islamic system…” (Art.143) the “Revolutionary Guards Corps” (Pasdaran) has been given the main responsibility of “safeguarding the revolution and its ensuing outcomes” in a separate provision. (Art.150)

In reality, the Revolutionary Guards are in a sense the elite corps in the Islamic Republic armed forces and inherently possess political power and leverage over all other institutions. This is especially true during crises and civil strives like university students and workers unrests during past several years. Here we are reminded of a number of ultimatums and harsh declarations issued by a group of Pasdaran commanders threatening to use iron fist against dissidents, cut journalists’ tongues and topple the government during President Khatami’s tenure in office.

Mr. Ahmadinejad (a former Bassiji) ascendance to power as president was the consequence of a delicate balance with respect to military involvement in politics. But, his poor performance to fulfill its promises in economic and other areas incited a number of high ranking commanders to get directly involved into political fronts. The fear of repeating the tumultuous years of reformists reign, which in their view, brought the Islamic regime to edge of disintegration, gave Pasdaran the necessary pretext to step in for the purpose of avoiding their resurgence to power in the parliament and executive branch.

The problem now is that the elite corps, as guardian of the revolution, is not satisfied with the ongoing process and the share given so far to it in political scene. Pasdaran may think they merit to be taken into play in all affairs of the country. They see themselves more competent than anybody else to run the state. Perhaps in the back of their minds they rationalize they were able to participate in the war without much specialty and education why should not they be allowed to conduct the country in peacetime.

In the final account, Pasdaran see themselves as the ones who saved the revolution and the Islamic regime despite all internal and external conspiracies. They have been already given many lucrative projects during the privatization programs, including the ones in oil and gas industries. But, it seems that economic power alone does not satisfy their expectations; they are asking for more political power.

Indeed, they have now forcibly accumulated much more experience and knowledge in various domains. However, their capacity to run the sophisticated affairs of a state is subject to query. Since, so far no impartial and independent evaluation about their performance in war and their efficiency in civilian positions has been made. They are only fit to function in crisis situations and emergency cases where immediate actions are needed to establish order and secure the status quo. In other words, they can perform only through revolutionary manners, which mean without accountability.

Apparently, the Islamic regime has no other choice than to go along with their increasing demands. Since, they are the ones who have both the material instruments of power and potential motivation to get rid of the cleric rule under the pretext of rescuing the revolution and Imam Khomeini’s legacy. They could, if they so decide, emerge as hero savior in public eyes, as did Napoleon Bonaparte in French Revolution and Colonel Reza Khan after the constitutional revolution in Iran.

The future has many turnings beyond which it is difficult to see. Who knows? May be in the long run we will be deceived in our judgment. /

Iran: New Space Partner!

Iran: New Space Partner!

Ali Asghar Kazemi
February 5, 2008
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The 29th anniversary of the revolution in Iran was different this year. Along with numerous academic, sportive and artistic festivals, inaugurations, ground breakings and a host of other celebrations, the launching of a ballistic missile Kavoshgar I (Explorer) on February 4, 2008 was indeed most eye-catching. Apparently the missile was intended to carry and put a research satellite in the orbit. But as we shall see here, the political aspect of this test is much more controversial than its technological dimension, which is more or less a common occurrence elsewhere in the world.

While space, as the common heritage of mankind, is supposed to be reserved solely for peaceful uses, so far few states possessing the monopoly of highly sophisticated science and technology have been competing in this realm. Indeed, some nations are more talented and have more aptitude in the path of innovation and technical Know-how.

There is no doubt that Iranians are among gifted people. Yet, due to a number of historical impediments, they also have developed a number of weak points among which their superiority complex is more blatant. They want to be admired, well liked and accepted by others, individually and collectively. They usually have a tendency to over-estimate their capability but, are not prepared to commit themselves to discipline and hard work. Thus, they set their goals beyond the reach of their capacity and knowledge.

This characteristic has been reflected in the attitude of leaders and governments before and after the revolution. They have little tolerance vis-à-vis their political opponents and those who happen to think not like them. They easily label them as traitors, enemy collaborators and spies, who should be eliminated. No government likes to be criticized for poor performance even with good intentions. They expect all citizens, scholars, scientists, poets, writers, and intellectuals to devote their full talent and capacity at the service of the incumbent regime.

Being quite aware of this trait, most foreigners who have some benefit in dealing with Iranians often exaggerate in their compliments. Here we are reminded of President Jimmy Carter’s observation during his visit to Tehran just before the revolution in 1979. He naively alluded to the “island of stability” referring to the Shah’s excellent leadership right in the middle of social turmoil in Iran. This was indeed a slippery compliment which incited the Shah to tighten the repressive rope around opponents’ necks.

Nevertheless, Persians have proven that they possess scores of potentialities and can perform tremendous achievements, provided they have the necessary motto, forward-looking institutions and good leadership. The proof is the great number of successful and talented Iranians scientists, physicians and scholars now residing in Western countries.

Ever since the Islamic regime in Iran was dragged into an unwanted and unequal war with Iraq and was denied of war equipment and weaponry, it had no other choice than to rely on the patriotic zeal and ingenuity of its people in order to compensate its deficiencies. Besides from procuring its defense needs in world-wide black-markets, it has been investing hard in various fields of science and technology inside the country.

After the war, in order to show its capacity to govern a nation and lead it to the path of power and development, the acquired technical capacity during the war was a good basis to launching ambitious projects in defense industry and other fields. Indigenous innovations, from the construction or assembling of jet fighters, mini submarines and assault fast boats to long range missiles and other projects in the fields of genetics and cloning, nanotechnology and medicine got underway. The nuclear endeavor can be considered as one such investment which is now experiencing harsh pressure from outside for the purpose of abandoning the scheme.

It is worthwhile to remember that both the nuclear and satellite projects are among the many ambitious ventures that originally date back to the Shah regime which were abrogated as a revolutionary action by the religious regime.

The Islamic regime’s particular endeavor to revive and aggrandize most of these projects later bears good witness that Iran’s geo-strategic position in the crisis-ridden Middle East dictates certain requirements that whoever rules this country will follow the same path. This is of course a source of preoccupation for many who nourish anti-Persian sentiments inside and outside the region.

However, these whole undertakings at this particular juncture seem to be essentially used as justifying grounds for political legitimacy, proof of efficiency, good governance and national pride of a religious-revolutionary regime. Since, there are no clear indications that any of these grandiose projects, including the ballistic missile project, have gone through a rigorous cost-benefit analysis in order to evaluate their economic suitability in the context of national interests.

Whereas many developed countries use Russian or Chinese missile technology to put their sophisticated satellites in the orbit considering the much lower costs, there is no rational for Iran to rely on its own means to launch a few satellites. For many, the nuclear enrichment scheme falls in the same kinds of misjudgment and reasoning, which is a dire burden on Iran’s national resources.

Despite the fact that we don’t have yet the detailed specifications of the missile and the degree of the launch success, on the basis of what was shown in the media, the following hypotheses can be formulated with respect to recent ballistic missile test during the 29th anniversary of revolution:

*It intends to deter those who plan to isolate the Islamic government and threaten to overthrow the regime through preemptive strikes;
*It wants to show that economic sanctions and other limitations to pressure the regime to submit to the will of big powers, are condemned to failure;
*It implicitly threatens that the religious regime has the capability and intention to strike back if necessary hostile states in the region and elsewhere;
*It wants to dissuade members of the UN Security Council, and by the same token 5+1 States, to adopt a new resolution against Iran;
*It intends to demonstrate to the people, especially domestic opponents, that the regime is solid and resolute in its grip of power and does not allow anybody to challenge its legitimacy and existence; and finally
*It wants to prove the efficiency and effectiveness of a religious regime to run the sophisticated affairs of a country in 21st century, despite all the malicious schemes and conspiracies to show the contrary. /

NIE Report and Iran's Nuclear Challenge

NIE Report and Iran’s Nuclear Challenge
Ali Asghar Kazemi
January 2008
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Amid heated debate about US President claim that Iran’s nuclear ambitions could start World War III, the official NIE report on the matter came as a shock to all. Whatever the true intention behind the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report on Iran’s nuclear project, it had the following immediate consequences:
It prompted the Islamic regime to construe the report as a proof of innocence and peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities;
It gave Iranian hardliners some self-confidence and security assurance about their defying stance;
It encouraged “revolutionary coast guard” to challenge US warships’ “transit passage” through the Strait of Hormoz during recent Bush’s trip to the region;
It instilled Russians to deliver the first shipment of enriched uranium for Iran’s nuclear power plant at Bushehr as a deterrent safeguard against any eventual preemptive strike;
It induced Russia and China to stiffen their position on the matter in the UN Security Council;
It relieved US President from a mounting psychological pressure exerted by Neo-Con folks in Washington to go for military option against Iran; and finally
It assured pacifists in America and elsewhere that the United States will not venture another war in the Middle East. .....Continued...

The Global Context of Knowledge

The Global Context of Knowledge

Ali Asghar Kazemi
January 2008

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The age of internet and mass communication has created an environment in which we are compelled to think beyond conventional geographic and political boundaries. Proponents of globalism believe that we have no other choice than to conform to the requisites of a democratic culture and make use of a world language in order to express ourselves and exchange views with others. Opponents of globalization are quite skeptical about this development and warn against dangerous impacts of this trend on native cultures and languages around the globe. ...More..

Iran: Political Impact of the Cold

Iran: Political Impact of the Cold
Ali Asghar Kazemi
January2008
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The start of the year 2008 will be remembered in current history of Iran. On January 1st 2008 Iran has experienced an unprecedented cold and snowy weather. This same day, pipelines which provided Turkmenistan gas to northern Iran was shut down without prior notice, at least to people caught in the terrible cold.

While climatic changes are among crucial environmental factors which threaten the security and well being of mankind, political dimensions of the matter are significant as well. Governments caught in such natural calamities often blame extraordinary conditions to justify their incapacity to tackle with environmental crises. Iran’s incumbent system did the same during the unprecedented cold of January 2008.

With regards to the stoppage of Turkmenistan gas at this very critical time it was first claimed by government officials that the matter pertained to technical problem. But, soon it was revealed by some domestic newspapers that the problem was deeper than a simple technical matter and related to a long dispute about the price of gas between the two countries. The unexpected harsh weather only brought the matter to the surface.

Engulfed in a terrible cold and snow storm with no heating facilities, people of the majority of provinces started to complain about the incapacity of the government to handle the crisis. Meanwhile many thousands of household gas connections were either completely cut off or became unusable because of lack of pressure. Hundreds of cars were caught in blizzard in principal roads without much help.

The political impact of the cold began to show up when high official started to beg people for economizing and reducing gas consumption. The government ordered industries to shut down production in order to redirect gas to household consumption. Indeed, the cold came to the assistance of political opponents as an opportunity to criticize the hard-line government in the coming parliamentary elections campaign.

Hardliners are anxious to loose their majority seats in the Parliament which seems to be a possibility in the present situation. However, they count on other leverages which could work in their favor in order to change eventual adverse results of the elections.

There is no question that the cold weather at the beginning of winter has shown its enduring impact upon the present political scene of Iran in the following directions:
· Though the Islamic regime owes much of its strength and endurance to low level conflicts and crises, however it has never been ready to face natural disasters and events beyond the control and management capability of inefficient institutions;
· The governmental institutions and machinery are incapable of handling sudden environmental crises such as earthquakes, floods, extreme cold and other natural hazards;
· Lack of strategic insight and contingency planning make it very hard for a self-proclaimed revolutionary regime to tackle with crisis situations;
· Political opponents are no better than the incumbent authorities, because the matter is deep-rooted in the structural and institutional deficiencies;
· Sentimental and not rational approach to foreign policy has already caused much damage to our national and public interests. Turkmenistan irresponsible attitude during the last cold calamities is only one example to be remembered;
· Although it is sure that hard-liners will capitalize on this catastrophe to claim success in handling the crisis, there is no doubt that the government should be taken accountable for its mismanagement and misinformation which caused the death of more than hundred innocent people and huge loss of production during the cold.

Environmental changes are now accepted facts of life on the globe either by natural causes or through man-made artificial reasons. Strategists even go further to predict that future conflicts among nations would be environmental. This is to say that technologically advanced nations are now capable, at least theoretically, to cause inundation or drought by manipulating the clouds over a hostile territory.

Thus, common sense dictates that states should be prepared in their contingency plans for any unexpected natural or artificial events which could have adverse social and political impact upon them. /

The Persian Hypocrisy

The Persian Hypocrisy*
Ali Asghar Kazemi
January 2008
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Ever since the hard-line government came to power in Iran and attempted to solve various problems of the country by force and populist policies, inflation, unemployment and other social troubles got out of control in various sectors of the society. At first officials denied the whole quandary and blamed liberals and enemies of Islam for fabricating propaganda in order to weaken the popular government.

Gradually the matter became so flagrant and critical that even hard-line MP’s in the Islamic Parliament (Majlis) started to nag and criticized the government for its failure in containing the galloping inflation. Finally the President and other high officials admitted to some extent the existence of these problems but, as expected, they put the blame on domestic invisible evils hand and extraneous factors for the anomalies.

Indeed, Inflation, unemployment, poverty, corruption, drugs abuse, robbery, burglary, forgery, assault, petty crimes and other social ills are familiar occurrences in almost all societies. But when these events grow out of proportion in a religious state such as Iran, the matter requires serious attention.

Official media usually depicts only parts of the problems and others prefer not to cover such events fearing regime discontent which could be very costly. Nevertheless, from time to time when bad news pierces their way to mass media, we realize that their propagation is amazingly dangerous. For instance, you would hear that in just one day hundreds of burglars, thieves, mobs and drug traffickers are arrested in the streets of Tehran and handed over to the justice department. Apparently, the Justice department is compelled to release them back to the streets because lack of sufficient rooms in jails and detention houses; and the vicious circle goes on and on.

Tremendous gap between the haves and have-nots has created an extremely hostile environment among people in big cities such as Tehran. Flashy cars, lavish restaurants, sumptuous shops and luxury houses are indeed very repulsive to people who really can’t afford their daily bread. Without a doubt, the situation is susceptible to create clash between various layers of the society. There seems to be no chance that the government could tackle with the problem the way it has been doing so far. This will incite little people to solve their misery outside the realm of law, ethics and rationality.

Of course many descent and honest poor people may take the hardship as a misfortune, fate, and bad luck. But needy greedy populaces don’t see the matter this way and are tempted to revolt against such injustice in their own ways. Realizing to be unable to claim justice from the government, they will go after wealthy and opulent targets in order to put things straight and get their share. Car thefts, burglaries, assaults, larceny, bank robbery etc. are ordinary occurrences in big cities. In their view this is a handy way to get around poverty, injustice and unfair distribution of wealth and oil revenue promised by the president!

For example, commuting to your work by car is a risky affair these days; since you are always susceptible to fall into some sort of tricky trap laid on your way in order to drag you into some kind of trouble. Phony accidents for stealing your valet or hand bag, asking money for faked injury and damages, staging scenario to eject you out of your SUV, stabbing you to death for stealing your car; and other hazardous incidents, are ordinary occurrences in the daily life.

Forgery and counterfeiting of all kind of documents: academic degrees, driving license, identity card, certificate of conscript, invoice, letter of credit, money bill, traveler’s checks, etc. are common lucrative business. You can get any degree from any university in any academic and professional field by few hundreds dollars. You can obtain any kind of hard drug in the corner of the street or in public parks. They are cheaper and more accessible than cigarettes.

If you decide to spend your life saving to buy an apartment or a piece of land, you may end up becoming victim of a fraudulent deal. Charlatans, imposters swindlers and moon-shiners are waiting for you every where. Use and abuse of sacred names and religious symbols for cheating you are common business and you should always be cautious of not being rip-off here and there.

There is no doubt that these plagues can not be remedied by mere force, coercive measures or even enacting of laws and regulations. When poverty and injustice surpass its tolerable threshold, social disruption is inevitable. In such circumstances, if the ruling system proves incapable to cure the malaise and show signs of weakness and perplexity, people may revolt against it; otherwise they will launch at each other’s throats.

Elections days are nearing and officials are showing their friendly faces. Hard-liners are more or less confident of their victory in the parliament. Nonetheless, they make believe to need people’s support to remain in power. But in practice, both rulers and ruled only pretend to be gratifying each other while permanently planning for mutual deception. This is hypocrisy par excellence which is becoming rule of the game in this land of legend.

Persian hypocrisy has had tremendous impact upon Iran’s history. It has misled governments and rulers in their evaluation of the situation. Contemporary political process, from constitutional revolution to Mossadeq era and later the 1979 revolution, which caused the downfall of monarchy in Iran, is vivid consequences of this characteristic.

The “amazing Persian” who has survived throughout the time elapsed by adapting himself to repression, deprivation and decadence, is experiencing yet another era of hardship and confusion in his long tumultuous history. God knows where the present trend will drag our nation and the future generations. /

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* This is the third and last commentary on the subject of Politics and Hypocrisy. To read the previous articles see Strategic Discourse .

Politics and Hypocrisy(2)

Politics and Hypocrisy (2)

Ali Asghar Kazemi
December2007
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In our previous commentary on this subject we argued that the marriage of religion and politics in pursuit of power gives birth to hypocrisy. Simple explanation for this phenomenon is that complex problems and functions of society can not be carried by supra-natural order as interpreted by ideology.

Common sense dictate that political leaders should be truthful to people whom they need their support for reelection. To that end, they have moral responsibility to rely on reason and logic in political process for the fulfillment of people objectives. This requires science, technical know-how, material and moral capital. Naturally, religion can not supplant these requisites since they are not accessible through mere pretension and ideological rhetoric. In this respect our political leaders are part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

On the other hand, with respect to religious role as the Indian philosopher Radhakrishnan once said: “It is the function of religion to turn the world upside down, to make revolutionary demands. If religious men take interests in secular problems, they are convicted of a gross betrayal of religion.”

Political power has an implied connotation of coercive influence, whereas spiritual and religious power relates to persuasive influence. Religion exerts influence over human behavior. But a great deal of religious or spiritual power that we observe in political life is carried under the auspices of nominally religious persons, groups or institutions, may well be a kind of secular power which is hiding behind religious symbols or garb.

On the assumption that power is not an end in itself, how then the two spheres, competing for influencing man in his material and spiritual world can come to an agreement? If man were driven by an insatiable greed for power, as Thomas Hobbes asserts in Leviathan, and Machiavelli had suggested earlier in The Prince, then the world would experience an endless war, and every one would live in permanent fear and frustration. But, presumably the ethical and religious dimension of the” political man” tend to restrain human being from behaving by mere material obsession and desires.

Prophets have come to world in order to show man the right path to truth and salvation. But, few of them however, have been successful. Machiavelli observed that all armed prophets have conquered and unarmed prophets have failed. Realistically, power can be thought of as “the instrument by which all other values are obtained.” Since many people consider power as a value in itself, it is safe to say that power functions both as means and ends. Thus, men can share power over nature, but power over human mind is something for which men must compete.

If we perceive the religious sector and the political sector as two actors engaged in competition in some sort of “zero-sum-game,” whatever one side gains equals the losses of the other side. This is more or less the Machiavellian view of power that once said “the Prince who advances another prince’s power, diminish his own.” This is a non-cooperative game as opposed to cooperative game in which the two parties may in fact gain in their interaction, provided they start up with such intention. This makes the difference between an authoritarian dictatorship and democratic political system.

When a spiritual leader sets out to compete with the temporal sector in gaining political power, the case immediately represents as a zero-sum-game, leading to non-cooperative and antagonistic behavior. The problem therefore is whether it is possible to discover elements and situations in which the religious and political sphere can play a game that eliminates antagonism, conflict and hostility, and enhances cooperation, construction and compassion.

Secularist ideal claim that the only way to strike a balance and to reach a mutually constructive solution is to delimit the domain within which each sector can maneuver in order to direct human being toward the path of material welfare as well as spiritual salvation. The two sectors shall then cooperate in using their persuasive and coercive influence for common objectives of people. But in practice the matter is not so much clear and history of mankind has proven that it has never been possible to strike the desired balance.

The hundred year’s war of fifteenth century resulted continuous conflicts over the distribution of power between religious and temporal sectors, church and the state or popes and the kings. In the seventeenth century the same issues provoked the thirty years war. The resurgence of secularism replaced the medieval theocratic paradigm and ushered the age of enlightenment.

The secular consideration of power began its reappearance with Machiavelli’s doctrine of pragmatism in political theory. The basis of this doctrine was to answer the question of what needs to be done by a ruler to remain in power. That is to say that the necessity of political life often required the breaking of moral low. Machiavelli’s princes, unlike Plato’s philosopher-kings, ruled because they were shrewd in manipulating power. Thus, power became devoid of virtue. For Machiavelli, good and evil were traits of all human being and a successful ruler had to be “part lion and part fox.”

Bertrand Russell wrote that faith, ideology and religion as a whole are undisputed elements in forming the power of a state. Indeed ideas influence the development and use of command over power and violence. In cases were nations are not fully developed from a political-democratic standpoint and party politics as well as other social institutions lack the necessary appeal to unite people in the pursuit of their objectives , religion can fill the gaps. Translated into ideology when put into motion, religion may assume a determinant role in a society, provided it is properly used. It can also weaken a state, and deteriorate its internal and external relations if its potential power is not directed toward constructive path and is used in the pursuit of evil objectives.

We shall continue this discussion in our future commentaries.

Footnotes have been deleted for simplicity.Interested readers can consult Scholar e-Journal for references.

Politique et Hypocrisie

Politique et Hypocrisie

Ali Asghar Kazemi

Le 20 décembre 2007

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La politique par la nature est une entreprise maudisse pour le mettre dans un terme poli. Il y’a des gens qui préféreraient l'étiqueter comme des truques ignobles pour manipuler le public. Machiavel était le premier d’admettre sans honte que la politique et l'éthique sont deux domaines distincts à ne pas être confus. Beaucoup de penseurs et les philosophes ont averti contre lier cet animal avec la corde d'éthique.

Les politiciens laïques dans l'Ouest et ailleurs dans le monde n’ont pas d’objections pour concourir ouvertement avec l'approche machiavélique à la politique. Notre problème est ici avec les dirigeants politiques amateur et prétentieux que sous le déguisement des préceptes religieux se met à manipuler la vérité dans la poursuite de pouvoir.

Afin de mettre ceci dans un contexte plus clair on peut dire que, la gouvernance est vraisemblablement construite sur les prémisses logiques et fonctionne d’une manière rationnelle. D’autre part, la religion est basée sur les principes de foi sans la raison. Quand le gouvernement représentant les institutions politiques et la religion représentant le système de valeur de convictions se conjugue ensemble dans la poursuite du pouvoir, un conflit inévitable surgit, à moins qu’ils se cachent derrière le rideau d'hypocrisie.

Par cette introduction je me permets d’arguer que les politiciens qui font semblant d'agir et comporter autrement en dissimulant leurs visages derrière les moeurs ou l'éthique religieuses sont soit insensés ou hypocrites. Parce que la politique n’a essentiellement rien à faire avec la moralité et sa fonction principale est en effet la poursuite du pouvoir.

Descendons maintenant sur la terre pour voir comment cet argument tient dans le vrai monde. Nous n'avons pas à aller trop loin pour chercher des exemples dans les sociétés éloignées n’ayant rien à faire avec notre vie quotidienne. Si nous observons autour de nous, nos propres politiciens qui voudraient être considéré comme hommes de Dieu et symboles de foi et l'éthique, nous les trouvons des hypocrites enragés sans honte. Ils agissent ni par la raison ni par les principes moraux mais simplement par leur instinct brut.

Sous la guise de volonté sublime de Dieu, le salut humain, l'indépendance nationale, la justice, le bien-être et la souveraineté du peuple, leur but final est la survie et le pouvoir avec tous ses attributs. L'élément essentiel pour eux est le résultat des boîtes de scrutins qui les permettent à rester dans le pouvoir à tout prix. A cette fin, toute chose est acceptable pour dissimuler la vérité, couvrir des faits et même manipuler les boîtes de bulletins de votes.

Sur la scène internationale, ils font semblable d’être hardis et vigoureux, mais ils sont simplement des individus médiocres et irresponsables qui risquent la vie d'une nation pour leur vision immature et sotte. Pour eux n'importe quoi est admissible s'il promeut la cause et les objectifs qu'ils croient être bons pour leur poigne de pouvoir.

Malheureusement, nos politiciens, droite, gauche ou au milieu, sont simplement des disciples incultes de Machiavel dont les seuls attributs dans le domaine politique sont des mensonges, la démagogie et la tromperie. Ils ont tous les vices de politiciens séculiers qu'ils dénoncent mais aucun de leurs vertus.

Nous continuerons cette discussion dans notre prochain commentaire.

La Crise nucléaire n'est pas terminée

La Crise nucléaire n'est pas terminée

Ali Asghar Kazemi

Le 6 décembre, 2007

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Malgré le rapport récent de l'Office d’Estimation d'Intelligence Nationale américaine (NIE ) en ce qui concerne la nature paisible d'activités nucléaires d'Iran, comme nous verrons ici, la crise n’est pas encore terminée pour de bon. La débat concerne deux point de vues différentes reflètes de perspectives militaire et politique.

Dans l'analyse politique, nous examinons d'habitude la perception et l'intention d'adversaires et l'environnement dans lequel certaine stratégie pourraient être exécuté avec le coût et l'avantage impliqués dans les divers scénarios. Dans la stratégie militaire cependant, nous supposons que si notre adversaire a une capacité (véritable ou potentiel), il l'utilisera contre nous et donc nous devons neutraliser cette capacité ou être préparé à son encontre.

Peut-être dans le parlant ordinaire les deux points de vues mèneraient à la même conclusion. Mais, ceci est une impression fausse au moins dans la planification stratégique militaire. C'est à dire, pendant que dans la politique nous prenons des risques dans nos décisions et nos actions vers l'adversaire par délicatesse et tact, dans le militaire nous ne sommes pas permis d’être surpris en nous engageant des affaires de calcul de risque et d'autres exercices académiques.

Maintenant ceci est dit, examinons premièrement les évaluations clés du NIE a propos de l'entreprise nucléaire d'Iran. Le sommaire déclassifié du rapport, qui met ensemble l'information de 16 agences d'intelligence américaines, dit avec « haute confiance » que l’Iran a arrêté ses programmes d’armes nucléaires en 2003 « en réponse à la pression internationale ». L'évaluation dit aussi avec « confiance modère» que le programme n'a pas été remis en marche. Cependant, le rapport réclame que l’Iran gardait ses options ouvertes sur les armes nucléaires en voie de développement.Un conseiller supérieur au Président Bush pendant que considérant le rapport comme « positif » a cru que le risque d'un Iran nucléaire reste « sérieux ».

Dans la même ligne, le Conseiller de Sécurité Nationale des Etats-Unis, Stephen Hadley, a dit que les conclusions du rapport ont confirmé que les Etats-Unis avaient « raison d’être inquiétés » des ambitions nucléaires d'Iran et Président George W. Bush a eu « la bonne stratégie ». Cette déclaration transmet clairement le message que la Maison Blanche n’est nullement préparée à laisser l’Iran de continuer son programme nucléaire.

Dans les mots du Président des Etats-Unis, le rapport de NIE était un «signal avertissant » et sa vue qu'un Iran nucléaire serait un danger « n'a pas changée ». Bush a accentué qu'Iran essayait toujours d'enrichir l'uranium et pourrait remettre en marche son programme d'armes nucléaires. Dans sa vue le rapport était « une occasion pour la communauté internationale » de faire pression sur le régime iranien pour suspendre ses efforts pour enrichir l'uranium. Puisque, dans son jugement « ils ont eu le programme, ils le sont arrêté et ils pourraient le remettre en marche ».

Malgré le fait que M. Bush n'est pas un homme militaire, il semble que ses vues reflètent clairement l’avis militariste des Néo-Cons à Washington. Les analystes disent que le dernier rapport d'intelligence le fera plus dur pour les partisans d'action militaire contre Iran à disputer leur cas. Cependant, M. Bush a dit que l'action militaire était toujours une possibilité, « La meilleure diplomatie - la diplomatie efficace - est celle dans laquelle toutes options sont sur la table ». A son avis, l’Iran reste une menace au monde malgré la nouvelle intelligence disant que le pays ne peut pas construire d'armes nucléaires.

Regardons maintenant le cas d'un point de vue légal. Malgré tout développement récent qui pourrait être considéré une bonne nouvelle si pas une victoire nationale pour Iran, la question de la résolution du Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU ne reste toujours pas résolue. Ceci signifie que l’Iran est en violation de ses obligations pour abstenir d'obéir la demande du Conseil sans regard de la justification légale ou les circonstances politiques qui ont amené le dossier nucléaire au Conseil de Sécurité. Etant donné que le Conseil de Sécurité a agi sous Chapitre VII de la Charte et ses demandes sont obligatoires à tous membres d'ONU, le défi d'Iran pourrait créer le problème sérieux de crédibilité pour cet organe de sécurité internationale.

Néanmoins malgré certaines différences entre les membres permanents du Conseil de Sécurité sur le problème nucléaire d'Iran, il semble y avoir peu de dispute parmi eux en ce qui concerne la crédibilité de cet organe mondial majeur. Donc, la question de sanctions reste actif parce qu'Iran défie toujours la demande du Conseil de Sécurité pour suspendre son enrichissement d'uranium. Donc dans toute possibilité, le débat parmi les membres du Conseil de Sécurité atteindra le point décisif dans les semaines prochaines.

Ainsi, les Etats-Unis, France et le Royaume-Uni ont exhorté de beaucoup de mesures économiques plus dures, y compris le boycottage de pétrole d'Iran et d'industrie de gaz qui reste la source principale de son revenu. Mais peut-être la Russie et la Chine ne sont pas prêt d’aller aussi loin et pourraient créer obstacle à l'arrangement. Ces dernier peuvent durcir même leur position à la lumière du rapport de NIE en faveur relative d'Iran. Les spécialistes croient que si le Conseil de Sécurité n'atteint pas un accord, France et Grande-Bretagne agiront finalement par l'UE pour suivre les Etats-Unis dans les mesures unilatérales contre Iran.

Ce développement et les faits entiers mènent à la conclusion que la crise nucléaire d'Iran n’est point terminée pour de bon, comme quelques hauts dirigeants à Téhéran le souhaitaient. En d'autres termes, malgré le rapport prématuré du NIE de l'intention bénigne du projet nucléaire du régime Islamique, si l’Iran continue à ignorer la résolution du Conseil de Sécurité sur l'enrichissement nucléaire, nous devons attendre une escalade de crise dans les jours à venir./

Politics and Hypocrisy

Politics and Hypocrisy

Ali Asghar Kazemi
December 2007
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Politics by nature is an untidy business to put it in a polite term. Some would prefer to label it as dirty tricks for manipulating people. Machiavelli was the first to admit with no shame that politics and ethics are two different realms not to be confounded. Many thinkers and philosophers warned against tying this animal with the rope of ethics.

Secular politicians in the West and elsewhere in the world don’t mind to openly concur with Machiavellian approach to politics. Our problem here is with pretentious amateur political leaders whom under the guise of religious precepts set out to manipulate facts in pursuit of power.

To put this in other term, governance is presumably built upon logical premises and function on rational process. Religion on the other hand, is based upon the principles of faith without reason. When government representing the political institutions and religion representing the value system of beliefs come together in pursuit of power, an inevitable clash occurs, unless they hide behind the curtain of hypocrisy.

By this introduction I venture to argue that politicians who pretend to act and behave otherwise by concealing their faces behind religious mores or ethics are either fouls or hypocrites. Because politics essentially has nothing to do with morality and its main function is indeed pursuit of power.

Now let’s descend on the earth and see how the argument works in real world. We don’t have to go too far and look for examples in remote societies having nothing to do with our daily life. If we observe around us our own politicians who like to be considered men of God and symbols of faith and ethics, we find them rabid hypocrites without shame. They act neither by reason nor by moral principles but merely by their brute instinct.

Under the guise of sublime will of God, human salvation, national independence, justice, welfare and people’s sovereignty, their primordial goal is survival and power with all its attributes. Essential for them is the result of the ballot boxes which allow them to remain in power at all costs. To that end, it is permissible to conceal the truth, cover up facts and even manipulate ballot boxes.

In international scene they act as if they were bold and hardy, but they are merely cowardly mediocre persons who risk the life of a nation for their immature and foolish vision. To them anything is allowable if it promotes the cause and objectives they believe to be good for their grip of power.

Our politicians, whether right, left or in the middle, are simply uneducated disciples of Machiavelli whose only attributes in political realm are lie, demagoguery and deception. They have all the vices of secular politicians whom they denounce but none of their virtues.

We shall continue this discussion in our future commentaries./

Nuclear Crisis is not over

Iran’s Nuclear Crisis is not over!

Ali Asghar Kazemi
December 6, 2007
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Despite recent report of the American National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) regarding the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, as we shall see here, the crisis is far from being over. The contention entails two different views projected from the military and political perspectives.

In political analysis, we usually examine the perception and intention of adversaries and the environment in which certain strategy may be carried out along with the cost and benefit involved in various scenarios. In military planning however, we assume that if our opponent has a capability (actual or potential), it will use it against us and therefore we should neutralize this capacity or be prepared for it.

Perhaps in ordinary speaking the two views would lead to the same conclusion. But, this is a false impression at least in military strategic planning. That is to say, while in politics we take risks in our decisions and actions towards the opponent through brinksmanship and tact, in military we are not allowed to run into the business of risk calculation and other academic exercises.

Now this being said, let us examine first the key assessments of the NIE about Iran’s nuclear undertaking. The declassified summary of the report, which draws together information from 16 American intelligence agencies, says with "high confidence" that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 "in response to international pressure". The assessment also says with "moderate confidence" that the program has not restarted. However, the report claims that Iran was keeping its options open on developing nuclear weapons.

A senior advisor to President Bush while considering the report as "positive" believed that the risk of a nuclear Iran remained "serious". In the same line, US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said the report's findings confirmed the US was "right to be worried" about Iran's nuclear ambitions and that President George W. Bush had "the right strategy". This statement clearly conveys the message that the White House is in no way prepared to back down its earlier position on Iran.

In the words of US President, the NIE report was a "warning signal" and his view that a nuclear Iran would be a danger "hasn't changed". Bush stressed that Iran was still trying to enrich uranium and could restart its weapons program. In his view the report was "an opportunity for us to rally the international community" to pressure the Iranian regime to suspend its efforts to enrich uranium. Since, in his judgment “they had the program, they halted it and they could restart it.”

Despite the fact that Mr. Bush is not a military man, it seems that his views clearly reflect that of military minded Neo-Cons in Washington. Analysts say the latest intelligence report will make it harder for proponents of military action against Iran to argue their case. However, when asked if military action was a possibility, Mr. Bush said: "The best diplomacy - effective diplomacy - is one in which all options are on the table." In his view, Iran remains a threat to the world despite new intelligence saying the country may not be building nuclear weapons.

Now let’s look to the case from a legal point of view. Despite all recent development that might be considered good news if not a national victory for Iran, the question of UN Security Council resolutions still remain unresolved. This means that disregard of the legal ground and political circumstances which brought Iran’s nuclear case to the Security Council, so far the Islamic regime has abstained from obeying the Council demand for cessation of nuclear enrichment. Given that the Security Council has acted under Chapter VII of the Charter and its demands are mandatory to all UN members, Iran’s defiance could create serious problem of credibility for this important world organization.

Notwithstanding certain cleavage between permanent members of the Security Council on Iran’s nuclear Issue, there seems to be little difference among them as regards to the credibility of this major world body. Therefore, the question of sanctions remains an active one because Iran is still defying the UN Security Council over its enrichment of uranium. So in all possibility, the debate among Security Council members will be reaching decisive point in the coming weeks.

Thus far the United States, France and the UK have urged much tougher economic measures, including boycotts of Iran's oil and gas industry which remain the main source of its income. But Russian and Chinese reluctance to go that far may be an obstacle to the scheme. These latter may even harden their position in the light of NIE report in relative favor of Iran. Specialists believe that if the Security Council fails to reach a consensus, France and Britain will eventually act through the EU to follow the US in taking unilateral measures against Iran.

This whole development and facts lead to the conclusion that Iran’s nuclear crisis is far from being over for good, as some high officials in Tehran wished that way. In other words, despite the untimely report of the NIE about the benign intention of the Islamic regime’s nuclear project, if Iran continues to disregard the Security Council resolution on nuclear enrichment, we should expect a crisis escalation in the days to come./

US Sanctions against Academics

US Sanctions against Academics!
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Last week I received several complaints from my Ph.D. students about the shutting down of my “Homestead” academic site which has been running more than a decade. The space for this Site was originally offered to alumni of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Tufts University by American based Homestead Company free of charge. The site was designed for graduate students enabling them to have access to academic resources, documents and materials required for their reading and research. It contained references to most of my books, monographs, papers and articles which proved to be useful to interested graduate students.

Upon checking the site, I found that it was in fact closed. First I suspected that the matter was due to censorship which is an ordinary occurrence here. But, it did not take long to realize that the issue was related to the United States sanctions against the Islamic regime in Iran.
Regretfully, as can be seen here, contrary to all US claims that American sanctions against Iran in no way affect academic centers and intellectual activities, the letter of apology from the “Homestead” below bears good witness to the contrary. *

If Homestead is just complying with US regulations and eventually other companies like Microsoft, Hotmail, Google, Yahoo, AOL, etc. follow the suit, this will cause extensive damage to ordinary people as well as academics in Iran.

Furthermore, this restriction will only benefit those hardliners who always wanted to limit access to the internet through filtering and other obstructive techniques.

This proves that the United States administration is not really honest in its various declarations and claims about the nature and direction of sanctions against Iran. Since, in effect, such sanctions benefit the incumbent regime in power to further isolate people from the international community.

As a professor Law and International Relations who has always maintained good relations with American colleagues, I strongly protest against this unfortunate action of US administration and sincerely expect the immediate termination of the sanction against Iranian academics and intellectuals./
A. A. Kazemi
December 4, 2007

* Homestead letter:

“ We're sorry, but your service is being cancelled
As a company based in the United States, Homestead Technologies is subject to the export control laws and regulations of the United States, particularly the Export Administration Regulations ("EAR"), and sanctions rules of the U.S. Department of Treasury, Office of Foreign Asset Controls.
As part of Homestead's continued compliance with these laws and regulations, Homestead will no longer be able to offer services in the following countries: Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria, or to any resident or national of any of those countries, or to any person or entity listed on the "Entity List" or "Denied Persons List" maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce, or the list of "Specifically Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons" maintained by the U.S. Department of Treasury.
We're very sorry, but because your account is originating from one of the countries listed above, Homestead can no longer continue your service. We had no choice but to terminate service to your account as of today, November 29, 2007.
We do apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you, and want to help you in any way we can. If you need any help, please contact our Compliance Team by sending an email to compliance@homesteadsupport.com.”

Espoir pour la Paix de Moyen-orient

Espoir pour la Paix de Moyen-orient
Ali Asghar Kazemi
Le 29 novembre, 2006
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Ceux qui ont condamné l'initiative Américain pour la nouvelle conférence de paix de Moyen-orient connue comme « le Sommet d'Annapolis » et ont lancé une campagne acharnée pour l’avorter, ne peut pas être considéré bienveillants pour la cause palestinienne. La raison simple pour cet argument est que dans la politique vous ne devez jamais renoncer l'espoir pour atteindre votre objectif. Puisque, il a été toujours dit que la politique est l'art d'impossible.

Pour mentionner seulement quelques exemples, il y a peu de temps, qui imaginerait la chute du Mur de Berlin, la fin de la Guerre Froide et l'effondrement de l'Empire Soviétique ? La vérité que multiple tentation de régler des problèmes profonds dans l’issue palestinienne ont échoué, ne doit pas entraver notre perception d'une paix juste et durable dans le conflit.

Le fait que l'initiative vient des Etats-Unis, comme un patron self-proclamé des affaires du monde, ne change n'importe quoi de la raison ni de la substance de l'entreprise. Si quelques pays ne se sentent pas a l’aise avec cette tentative à cause de leurs propres querelles avec les Etats-Unis, ceci ne donne pas certainement la raison pour leur attitude négative vers le processus de paix de Moyen-orient, à moins qu'ils aient d'autres intentions dans le dos de leurs esprits.

Il n'y a pas de besoin ici d'entrer dans le détail de cet argument ni est-il sage de préciser mal-veilleurs qui pour le bien de leurs propres objectifs malin investit sur l'obstruction de l'entreprise.

La Paix de Moyen-orient n'est pas un but lointain si les partis engagés directement dans le conflit, y compris les états et les factions politiques d’une part et tous les étrangers qui font semblant d'être plus catholique que le Pape, mais cherchent à régler leurs propres problèmes, cessent de poursuivre leurs intérêts égoïstes dans l'arène palestinienne. /

Hope for Middle East Peace

Hope for Middle East Peace
Ali Asghar Kazemi
November 29, 2006
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Those who have condemned American sponsored new Middle East peace conference known as “Annapolis Summit” and launched pervasive campaign to abort the initiative, can not be considered as well-wisher for the Palestinian cause. Simple reason for this contention is that in politics you should never give up hope to reach your objective. Since, it has always been said that politics is the art of impossible.

To mention but a few examples, not long ago, who would imagine the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Empire? The truth that so far multiple attempts to settle deep-rooted problems in the Palestinian issue have failed, should not hampered our perception of a just and lasting peace in the conflict.

The fact that the initiative comes from the United States, as a self-proclaimed patron of world affairs, neither change anything from the justification nor from the substance of the venture. If some countries do not feel easy with this undertaking because of their own deep-rooted quarrels with US, this certainly does not give reason for their negative attitude towards the Middle East pace process, unless they have other intentions in the back of their minds. There is no need here to go into the detail of this argument nor is it wise to pinpoint ill-wishers who for the sake of their own wicked objectives invest on the obstruction of the undertaking.

Middle East Peace is not a far-fetched goal if parties directly involved in the conflict, including states and political factions on the one hand and all outsiders pretending to be more Catholic than the Pope, but seeking to settle their own problems, cease to pursue their selfish interests in the Palestinian arena./

L'ombre d'une nouvelle guerre froide

Ali Asghar Kazemi
Novembre 2077

Une nouvelle guerre froide apparaît à l'horizon des relations internationales. Ses symptômes et l'impact sont différents de la vieille guerre froide. Bien que la nouvelle guerre froide est essentiellement idéologique en nature, comme nous verrons, elle n'est pas entièrement une conséquence de l’effort de la Russie pour regagner son statut de superpuissance et ses relations détériorant avec les Etats-Unis.

Contrairement à la guerre froide défunte entre l'Est et l'Ouest, le communisme et le capitalisme (essentiellement identifié par deux superpuissances, les Etats-Unis et l'Union Soviétique), la nouvelle guerre froide implique une hostilité plutôt étrange entre les forces concourantes avec les pouvoirs inégaux et les objectifs plutôt ambigus. Les partis à ce conflit sont l'Ouest d’une part et les « entités » qui ne s'associent pas nécessairement avec un état- nation particulier sur l'autre. La situation a atteint la masse critique après 9/11, et a déjà réclamé les vies de beaucoup de gens innocents et semble graduellement fuir du contrôle.

La réapparition du fondamentalisme islamique dans le Moyen-orient, prêchant le dévouement total et la soumission à la volonté de Dieu et la négation de matérialisme terrestre, est en effet un développement crucial de notre temps. Ce phénomène est capable de déstabiliser l’ordre précaire du monde et le système international entier.

La demande pour le changement social, économique et politique et l'espérance d'un monde différent de l'existant a causé des gens pour chercher des alternatives. La religion réapparaît comme une source d’espoir, d’inspiration et le salut. En même temps, une tendance vers le fondamentalisme rigide est clairement observable. Les gens perdent la foi à leur système et leurs hommes d’affaires et politique ; ils cherchent le refuge dans la religion à la poursuite de leur cause.

La nouvelle guerre froide est un conflit bizarre dans lequel les partis hostiles n'engagent pas nécessairement dans une face à face confrontation classique et ne sentent pas de devoir pour se conformer aux règles de guerre, les lois et les normes humanitaires. Leur but principal est de changer les normes et le statu quo qui gouverne l'ordre actuel du monde. Le Moyen-orient est l'arène principale de cette confrontation ; ou les partis rivaux ne semblent pas avoir l'intention de cesser les hostilités.

Alors que la Chine semble trop occupée pour entrer dans ce conflit à cause de son miracle économique, la réapparition de la Russie comme une superpuissance et ses tensions récentes avec les Etats-Unis pourraient être une source d'inquiétude pour Washington. Cependant, les Etats-Unis ne semble pas être préparé à considérer la Russie un parti à la nouvelle guerre froide. En dépit de plusieurs mécontentements mutuels, y compris l'extension d'OTAN à l'est et le système de défense de missile d'Etats-Unis proposé dans l’Europe d'est qu'est soit-disant visé à la menace perçue des ambitions nucléaires d'Iran, les Etats-Unis considèrent toujours la Russie un partenaire stratégique qui ne doit pas être aliéné des affaires de monde. Ceci est principalement en raison d'une perception géopolitique qu'une Russie hostile pourrait être nuisible aux intérêts d'Etats-Unis autour du monde, surtout dans le Moyen-orient.

En fait, la Russie comme l'héritier aux éléments principaux de pouvoir Soviétique est maintenant capable d’empêcher les Etats-Unis d'atteindre ses desseins stratégiques globaux. Il a pris les Russes presque deux décennies pour se relever du choc paralysant de la désintégration de l'empire Soviétique. Le rétablissement de l’économie Russe et sa tentative pour réapparaître comme une superpuissance pourrait empoigner l'unilatéralisme d'Etats-Unis dans le monde. Pourtant Moscou n’est pas encore préparé à engager dans la compétition globale avec les Etats-Unis.

Vu d'un angle différent, la Russie pourrait être potentiellement utilisée comme une soutienne par quelques états défiants qui veulent redéfinir l’ordre établi du monde actuel d’après leur propre perspective. Ils aimeraient voir une escalade dans les tensions Russo-américaines avec l'espoir de contenir la politique unilatérale et expansionniste des Etats-Unis. Dans leur vue, seulement la Russie peut égaler les Etats-Unis et empêcher sa stratégie diabolique dans le Moyen-orient. Iran pourrait être un de ceux-là qui véritablement accueille la détérioration des relations entre les Etats-Unis et la Russie avec l'espoir de profiter d'une nouvelle compétition « est-ouest », en échappant des nouvelles sanctions du Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU ou éviter une agression militaire possible américaine.


Alors que les faucons « néo-cons » de Washington continuent vigoureusement à isoler l’Iran dans l'espoir qu'il abandonnera son entreprise nucléaire, les Russes jouent un rôle malin en exploitant la situation pour rétablir leur position de superpuissance par rapport aux affaires régionales et globales. L'enchevêtrement américain dans le Moyen-orient, et surtout en Iraq et Afghanistan, a rendu tout à fait difficile pour Washington à traiter Moscou d'une position dominante.

Les relations nucléaires de la Russie avec Iran ont inculqué la confiance nécessaire pour le régime islamique de conter sur la protection russe dans leurs ambitions nucléaires. Pourtant le Kremlin semble attentif pour ne pas perdre de vue ses relations fragiles avec les Etats-Unis et l'Ouest. C'est à dire, malgré le voyage récent du Président Vladimir Putin à Téhéran et la signature d'une déclaration commune avec Iran en ce qui concerne la Mer Caspienne et les autres questions de sécurité, il toujours peut être d'accord avec le 5+1 et consent sur une troisième résolution du Conseil de Sécurité imposant plus de sanctions contre le régime islamique. La Chine, comme un membre permanent du Conseil de Sécurité, est dans la même position.

Comme un dirigeant astucieux et enfant légitime du KGB, Putin est bien conscient des règles du jeu en ce qui concerne la distribution globale de pouvoir. Il semble profiter de la nouvelle situation pour regagner la vieille position de superpuissance de Russie comme un partenaire égal avec les Etats-Unis.

Si nous pouvons classifier la nouvelle situation émergente comme une guerre froide est une question simple de définition. Ce qu’est certain est que le monde est en train d’éprouver un défi sans précédent cela, si pas convenablement managé, pourrait aboutir a un terrible désastre. Toutefois il n'est pas certain que les pays défiant comme l’Iran puissent atteindre leurs objectifs nucléaires ambitieux derrière l'écran de fumée de ces nouvelles conditions.

Publié © par bitterlemons -international. org - 22/11/2007

Ali Asghar Kazemi est le professeur de Droit et les relations internationales à Téhéran.

Shadow of a New Cold War

Shadow of a New Cold War

Ali Asghar Kazemi
November 2007


A new cold war is appearing on the horizon of international relations.Its symptoms and impact are different from the old cold war. Althoughas we shall see the new cold war is essentially ideological in nature,it is not entirely a consequence of Russia's drive to regain itssuperpower status and its deteriorating relations with the UnitedStates. More...

Diplomacy and Subversion: Iran-US Dialogue

Diplomacy and Subversion
US-Iran Dialogue
Ali Asghar Kazemi
May 28, 2007
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Amidst heated debates and controversies about the modalities of opening the first round of official talks between US and Iran’s delegates in Baghdad, news of spy networks guided by American intelligence services to carry subversive actions inside Iran shattered the whole scheme. In my previous comment I alluded to the flagrant blunders of American policies in the Middle East including Iraq and Iran. Indeed, this new gamble falls in the same array of consecutive US bungles which could be very costly for this superpower in the region.

When on May 30th 2006 the United States ventured to take a bold attempt to open dialogue with Iran on the nuclear Issue with the specific precondition that it should halt all nuclear enrichment, the matter was construed as a rather untenable bid. Since Iranian hard-liners had made so much political maneuver on the subject as a national pride that any retreat from that position would be considered as a public tragedy. Indeed, American decision-makers had a clear vision of the offer, in the sense that they knew well that Iranian government would probably reject emphatically the proposition and thus the ground would be ready for further actions against Iran in the United Nations Security Council.

Recent revelations about spy networks including the detention of some Iran-US citizens appear to be a calculated signal by Iranian hardliners to the American administration that they are suspicious of this whole undertaking. Eventually, those in charge of decision-making in Iran have come to the conclusions that the final aim of American strategy is a fundamental change in Iran’s political structure and thus looks beyond the mere allegations regarding the nuclear issue or even human rights and terrorism.

Mutual signals from both sides are vivid indications that neither Iran nor the United States are willing to engage each other in a true confrontational situation. Nonetheless they continue remain hostile until the time a solution is found in the process. Of course we should not expect much from this first round of talks which is supposed to be centered merely upon security situation in Iraq but could eventually pave the path for further negotiations on other critical issues.

The seemingly American compromising move at this juncture seems to pursue a number of objectives which disregard of Iranian response would be fulfilled. The final aim is to disengage Iran from Iraq internal affairs and to push it to the corner on the nuclear issue with a view to attract Russian and Chinese support for a U.N. Security Council resolution containing serious penalties.

Iranian government is now anxious for its survival and is looking for some safeguard for its security and protection. To that end, it is trying to drag on time for the purpose of finding some avenues for guarantying that a “regime change” alternative would be erased from the American strategy.

As it appears today it seems very unlikely that Iran would go along with the U.S. demands neither on the nuclear issue nor on Iraq. Therefore, it is very probable that hostilities between the two will continue and the nuclear case will be decided upon in the next round of deliberation in the Security Council under chapter VII of the U.N. Charter. We shall wait and see how the issue will develop in the coming days./

Common Sense Strategy...

Common Sense Strategy
US and the Middle East

Ali Asghar Kazemi
May 26, 2007
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It is a pitiable fact to realize that despite so many prominent strategists, think tanks and prestigious research institutions in the United States, American politicians have done so many blunders in their policies towards various problems of the Middle East. Perhaps, the concept of rationality and coherent decision making is a relative matter in the field of foreign policy and national interests, but one does not need to be very intelligent to understand that US policies towards various problems of the Middle East, including Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq and Iran have been total fiasco in the past several years. (I am letting aside for simplicity the problem of Afghanistan and other issues related to the North African and near Eastern countries.)

The bitter truth is that politicians here and there usually do not listen to academicians and non-partisan people whose advices might work against their individual or group interests or reputations. This is a common feature of more or less all ideologically oriented arrogant leaders whose mistakes might cause irreparable damage to the sublime interests of a nation. It is a common sense that a policy that produces bad results is a bad policy that should be avoided and not insisted upon.

As an example, neither the United States nor the Islamic regime in Iran has been following the rational path to a conclusion of animosity and mutual distrust. They both continue to emphasize on their rhetoric and particular values associated with their beliefs, dogma and ideologies. They both have a tendency to sacrifice their respective interests by using eccentric ways and means to intimidate each other in a zero-sum game whose outcome may not be in the interest of regional security and world order.

Failure of American strategy and policy in the Middle-East , is not just because the disregard of this superpower of the very basic principles of international law and explicit provisions of the United Nations Charter on peace , security and arbitrary use of force in international relations, but mainly due to the arrogant attitude of American unilateralism and lack of understanding the cultural affinities of the Moslem world .

Indeed, this will not help American national interests in the long-run, neither this will promote the cause of democratic changes in the Middle East. Quite on the contrary, this policy is apt to distort American picture abroad and will make life more and more difficult for U.S. soldiers and diplomats in foreign soils.

American policy makers and strategists shall not be surprised by this misfortune. Moslem peoples are very suspicious to foreigners who try to impose their will upon them, even with quite good intentions. Similar policies were applied successfully to Japan and Germany after World War II by the United States, but it did not work in Afghanistan and Iraq, and very probably may not work elsewhere in the region. Persistence on such policies may only deepen the divergence and animosity between Americans and local governments on the one hand, and will prompt anti-American sentiments among peoples which could only benefit totalitarian regimes in power.

Both outcomes are susceptible to be detrimental to U.S. economic and strategic interests in the Middle-East, especially, the Persian Gulf. Thus, it seems that peaceful change, initiated from within, compatible with local norms and values, and legitimately supported by the international community, without hindrance from outside powers, may best benefit the United States and the region as a whole

It seems that the prevailing discipline of social and political science tends to overlook the emerging factors and variables rooted mainly in religious reawakening and struggle for identity in the Middle East. The emergence of new neglected actors, in forms of fundamentalists Moslem has indeed changed both dimensions and patterns of relations among nations. This should necessarily change our perception of the world.

Almost seven years after September 11, it is high time to ponder upon certain questions with respect to security and order in the Middle East and American interests and prestige in the region. Are US interests more protected and American flag more respected than before? Are the Middle-East stability and security more guaranteed and the ground for establishing democracy and a just and durable peace in the Arab-Israeli conflict more fertile?

Unfortunately, answers to most of these questions are not encouraging and do not lead to optimism. A common sense approach says that bad policy leads to bad result. Good intentions are not sufficient. Appropriate policy along with good action and adequate understanding of domestic, regional and international environment are requisites of a good strategy. When the outcome is not in one’s favor, this means that the policy is defective and therefore it shall not be pursued at all costs. /

Beyond Conventional Wisdom...

Beyond Conventional Wisdom!
The Logic of Iran’s Defiance

Ali Asghar Kazemi
April 2007
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Those who are dazed about Iran’s controversial behavior in international scene, especially on the nuclear issue, should understand the very substance and roots of the Shiite doctrine within the realm of Islamic principles and its impact upon the political process in this country.

We should remember that Islam’s basic attitude towards the international order is that it must be transformed into a moral order. This is in fact the main thrust of Ben Laden and his followers’ beliefs and in a way is reflected in public speeches and letters of Iranian President (Ahmadinejad) to heads of states in the past two years. These also echo more or less the essential theme of the teachings of the founding father of Iran’s revolution.

This perception is inherently an anathema of the secular international order built on the political premise of the territorial state and the liberty of men to decide their fate. Therefore, Islamic state shall not be viewed as the term customarily applies in modern law of nations; since only religious affiliation determines the extent and the realm of Islamic community which is generally referred to as Dar-al-Islam. Outside this community-state everything else is considered as Dar-al-Harb, which include hostile and aggressor states against the Islamic community.

Islam is a lucid illustration of a religion which in its inception makes no contradiction between ethical theory and political practice. For centuries Moslem scholars maintained that the concept of holy war (Jihad) not quite unlike to Christian bellum Justum had a permanent character in religions among Moslem and non-Moslem territories. Assuming that Islam was, and still is considered a universal religion and system of belief, these two territories would (at least theoretically) be in a state of permanent hostility and war.

More modern liberal Moslem writers stress that the term refers not only to international war but also to the spiritual struggle for perfection within the heart of man. There is no consensus among Moslem scholars about the concept of peace and war in Islam. But the subject is viewed as an integral part of the conception of the international order in Islam.

By putting war and belligerency within the moral code, war in Islam is for the defense of virtue and truth against evil and falsehood. This is considered the authentic Moslem opinion on war which in practice has seldom been observed in the lifetime of Islam. Historical facts and events have proven that whenever religion was used in support of political power as a source of legitimacy, the deviation from the principles of faith has been unavoidable.
As an example, ever since Persia, whose unity was centered around Mazdaean religion, converted to Islam in seventh century it identified itself with the Shiite doctrine which was at variance with the established Islamic orthodoxy practiced elsewhere in the Middle-East. Thus, just at the time Europe was returning in the great upsurge of the Renaissance, a politico-religious conflict emerged between the two great powers of the time, i.e. Iran and Turkey. The Ottoman Empire, the instrument of Turkish imperialism presented the Sunnite orthodoxy and the Iranian Empire founded on the Persian national ideal incorporated in the Shiite doctrine. The two opponents threw themselves at one another’s throats. The outcome was bloody long wars which ultimately established a new balance of power shared between two Moslem empires of diametrically opposed viewpoints.

The argument which certain Western scholars have advanced with regard to the state of permanent belligerency of Islam stems from the interpretation of the principle of Jihad or the Holy War against Dar-al-Harb. This is the principle of perpetual enmity with and of coercive attitude and aggressive behavior against the unbelievers and infidels. From a moral perspective the struggle is viewed as permanent confrontation between truth and falsehood. On the assumption that Islam is the universal religion and should ultimately bring the whole world under its reign, these scholars hold the view that war and belligerency are the fundamental and necessary institution of Islamic state.
Although the concept of Jihad has gradually lost its strict warlike belligerent character, due to past failure of Moslem rulers to call and organize for holy war, in recent years, especially after the 1979 Revolution in Iran, the concept has regained some relevance in national and international scenes. The new Islamic crusade calls for a return to fundamentalism, a holy war against decadent, Western inspired modernization in Moslem countries. Convinced that Western influence erodes Islamic principles and fails to solve social problems, militant Moslems seek a strict interpretation of the Qur’an. The fundamentalist movement has gradually turned into fanaticism, social unrest, political assassinations, upheaval and terrors throughout the tormented world. The trend is fearfully regarded as a serious threat to the international democratic social and political order.Ideally, Islam, as the name itself indicates, is the religion of peace, brotherhood and compassion. War and violence would therefore be contradictory to its very spirit, unless it is waged in self-defense and for a just cause. Indiscriminate and wanton killing, devastating the natural environment, destroying harvests, defoliation, and deforestation are acts strictly forbidden and against the true spirit of Islam. Yet, in this world of paradox we experience all these ferocities being committed by Moslems against Moslems under the banner of Islam.
Hardly an impartial observer can judge the situation from the Islamic perspective. Since, Holy Scripture, traditions and Islamic jurisprudence can always be interpreted in supporting one’s evil policy and aggressive or hostile behavior. When politics and the pursuit of power become the prime concern of the state, religion and its moral restraints becomes an instrument of policy rather than its ethical guideline.
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